Colo-Colo vs. Universidad de Concepción - Relegation Playoff Preview
Chile’s biggest club has never been relegated, but that could change in the space of ninety minutes today.
Date: Wednesday 17th February 2021
Time: 18:00
Estadio: Fiscal de Talca
“Ganan o los matamos” — “Win or we kill you” (other translations are available)
That was the chilling message on a banner from the Garra Blanca, Colo-Colo’s notorious barra brava firm, as the players left the club’s Monumental stadium on Tuesday afternoon.
Otherwise, it was mostly an incredible show of support from the vast majority of fans who displayed their passion with song, flares and flags instead.
Smatterings of supporters lined the 257 km route along the roads from Macul to Talca. Thousands gathered just outside the stadium to give them a special send-off.
The players filmed it all on their phones, clearly blown away by the level of support on show, but now they must deliver.
Incredulous as many are in the country to the fact that this is even happening, this scenario has been likely for weeks. In fact, for much of the season it looked like it might be a direct relegation for Los Albos rather than this final chance of redemption today.
The reality of it perhaps only hit home when Tomás Alarcon buried a 96th minute penalty for O’Higgins on Sunday evening to condemn Chile’s biggest club to this most humbling of situations.
With the pandemic still at large and fans now allowed inside the stadium, today’s clash will be played out without supporters. Nevertheless, win or lose it is unlikely Colo-Colo fans will let the moment pass quietly.
If they had been allowed in, then El Popular could have expected to make up about 90% of the support inside the stadium. Thousands more would have been locked outside (this may still be the case) too even though the neutral venue is equidistant between Santiago and Talca.
That’s because their opponents, Universidad de Concepción, arrive to this playoff with a tiny fraction of the support Colo-Colo have, but also much less pressure.
The club from Chile’s second biggest city have spent six seasons in Primera B since their formation just 26 years ago. The last time was in 2013 where they were promoted back to the top flight at the first attempt.
While Colo-Colo are the biggest club in the country by a distance, El Campanil are not even a big club within the south of Chile. City rivals Deportes Concepción and Fernández Vial, as well as nearby Huachipato in Talcahuano all have clear claims to be bigger clubs.
Therefore they are expected to take to the field far more relaxed than their illustrious opponents. South American football has seen many shock relegations in the last decade starting with River Plate in 2011 who bounced back from it bigger and better than ever.
However, other clubs have not been so lucky. America de Cali in Colombia spent five seasons in the second tier while Cruzeiro in Brazil looked set for back-to-back relegations at one stage last year before Luiz Felipe Scolari (heavily linked with Colo-Colo last year) came in and steered the ship to safety.
Meanwhile in Peru, Alianza Lima, a club that Colo-Colo have close ties to suffered relegation to the second division at the end of last year.
Incredibly, both clubs had Chilean manager Mario Salas at the helm for parts of the campaign, the odds for both to go down in the same season would have been astronomical at the start of 2020 given both were considered title contenders.
If Colo-Colo are to triumph, then they must channel their nerves and aggression better than they did on Sunday.
Uruguayan centre-back Maxi Falcon was extremely lucky not to receive a red card for a double headbutt on an opposition striker. He then committed a series of fouls throughout the game culminating in giving away a penalty when his side were just seconds from safety.
However, Colo-Colo did pick up suspensions that might prove costly. Centre-back Julio Barroso, who had formed a successful partnership with the aforementioned Falcon, is banned.
Additionally, his back-up, the experienced Juan Manuel Insaurralde, is also suspended so it looks like manager Gustavo Quinteros will have to choose wisely to cover this notable weak point of the side.
Legendary playmaker Jorge Valdivia remains out injured although Matí Fernandez should have a key role to play. Wide attackers Pablo Mouche and Gabriel Costa are also missing meaning Quinteros has far from his best side available for arguably the club’s biggest game since they won the Libertadores 30 years ago.
One piece of good news for Colo-Colo this week was that consistent midfielder Cesar Fuentes will be available to play after the club managed to get his yellow card and suspension from Sunday rescinded.
Meanwhile, Universidad de Concepción head into this playoff well rested as they could afford to give most of their side the day off in their match against Universidad Católica knowing they couldn’t get safe last weekend.
Key players such as Panamanian striker Cecilio Waterman and winger Bryan Carvallo are the players Colo-Colo will have to watch closely.
Waterman has been a big hit in Chile this year with his physicality, off the ball intelligence and running. Carvallo is a former Colo-Colo youth product with plenty of creativity in his feet and some feel a potential narrative already feels written there.
El Campanil claim to feel much more mentally prepared than El Popular with key players stating in the media this week that they are not scared of the challenge ahead. The chances of them being involved in this game were high for weeks and they’ll be relieved they avoided direct relegation on Sunday.
For all their woes in the past year or so, both sides have proven to be much harder to beat in recent weeks. Colo-Colo are unbeaten in their last seven matches while El Campanil’s first defeat in seven came on Sunday with most of their first team missing against the champions Universidad Católica.
It should also be noted that the two games between the two sides this season finished in draws with the away side coming from behind to grab a point in each fixture.
In Talca, Colo-Colo are expected to dominate the ball while Universidad de Concepción will look to play on the counter. Many of the signs point to penalties being a distinct possibility, especially as it has been confirmed the playoff will have no extra-time.
Universidad de Concepción captain Alejandro Camargo spoke with TNT Sports during the build up and he said that his team had been practicing penalties, something that could play on the minds of both sets of players as the clock ticks down.
The head-to-head record between the two clubs in the last ten years is not great reading for Colo-Colo either. Of the clubs El Popular have played every year for the last decade, their record against Universidad de Concepción is the worst.
Ultimately, that shouldn’t matter when the players cross the white line later today. This match is set to be like no other that Chilean football has seen before.
Many Chileans are likely to stop their usual routine for this one. It is clear on social media that much of the country is divided into Colo-Colo fans on one side and rival supporters on the other who are desperate to laugh in their face. With popularity, comes hate.
Since the social uprising of October 2019, Chilean society has been through a series of significant and historical events.
Evidently, Chilean football without Colo-Colo in the top flight would add another shocking chapter to this era of seismic change.
Stats Zone
Colo-Colo have just a 38% win percentage against Universidad de Concepción in the last decade.
Cecilio Waterman scored two goals against Colo-Colo in El Monumental in a 2-2 draw on Matchday 6.
Colo-Colo (33) are 1 of 4 sides to score fewer goals than Universidad de Concepción (38) this season.
Universidad de Concepcion average of 41.6% is the lowest amount of possession any side had in Chile in 2020.
Only Universidad Católica striker Fernando Zampedri has a better expected goals and assists record than Cecilio Waterman in Chile this season.
No side faced more shots than Universidad de Concepción during the 2020 season.
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