Chile’s Relegation Dogfight Explained
The regular season of the Chilean Primera Division comes to a close this weekend, so who can still go down?
Over a year since the action started, the 2020 Chilean Primera Division regular season finally comes to an end this week. Direct relegation is decided on Sunday and we’ll also find out who will contest the relegation playoff.
The action starts tonight (Saturday) with Universidad de Chile taking on Antofagasta in a match that affects Libertadores, Sudamericana and relegation placings. It all finishes up on Monday with Cobresal taking on Unión Española, which will only affect continental competition placings.
There has been confusion around the relegation places ever since it was announced. Not just among fans, but in the media, clubs and even in the ANFP (Chilean FA).
Throughout the year, the following table by Alejandro Cisternas (@acisternas) has been a source of a great help to all of us who have tried to make sense of the situation:
What has always been clear is that three sides will be relegated at the end of this season. Iquique are already relegated on the average points table or what we call “Tabla Ponderada” here in Chile. This is an average of points across both the 2019 and 2020 seasons.
This leaves two spots still awaiting to be filled. One side must be relegated this Sunday, but from what table depends a lot on how already-relegated Iquique get on.
One team must be relegated from each table, but if Iquique finish bottom of both then the team in penultimate position in the Ponderada table goes down automatically.
The final relegation spot will be decided by one-off match on a neutral ground.
It should also be noted that next season’s top flight will have 17 teams in it. This is because the ANFP wants to slowly reduce it back down to 16 after bringing up to 18 teams for this season.
That was a decision taken due to the social uprising cutting short the leagues last season with no relegations and just 2 promotions handed out.
We already know the two teams promoted to the top flight in Chile - Primera B champions Ñublense together with Deportes Melipilla who won a dramatic playoff final against Unión San Felipe last weekend. So, let’s take a look at what sides are possibly going the other way.
Here is my breakdown of the situation for each team in the relegation mix:
Coquimbo Unido (Palestino away)
Currently bottom and 1pt and -3 GD behind already relegated Deportes Iquique.
If they surpass Iquique on the last day then they will find themselves in the relegation playoff, which is the best case scenario possible for them.
To achieve this they will need to get a win away to Libertadores-chasing Palestino and hope Iquique lose to Santiago Wanderers.
A draw and they will need Santiago Wanderers to beat Iquique away by 3 goals.
Universidad de Concepcion (Universidad Católica home)
They can not get safe on the last day due to their performance over two seasons.
They will be relegated directly if Coquimbo surpass Iquique in the 2020 table. If not, then they will contest the relegation playoff.
Therefore, the result in their match against Católica doesn’t make any difference, which is why it kicks off at 10:30am on Sunday.
Colo-Colo - (O’Higgins away)
After months of stress and weeks at the bottom, Colo-Colo can’t be relegated on Sunday.
However, they know they are not 100% safe unless they beat O’Higgins, who are chasing a Sudamericana spot.
A draw and they need to hope La Serena beat Audax Italiano; or
If Coquimbo finish above Iquique in the 2020 table then that puts Colo-Colo safe regardless of their result against O’Higgins.
Audax Italiano (La Serena away)
Audax sit above Colo-Colo on goal difference and therefore head into the final day knowing that they only have to match the result of Colo-Colo to be safe.
They can’t be relegated directly whatever happens on Sunday, but they will be in the relegation playoff if Colo-Colo better their result and Coquimbo stay bottom of the 2020 table.
Deportes La Serena (Audax home)
They sit one point above Audax Italiano in the 2020 table and will therefore be safe on that table with just a draw or Colo-Colo failing to win.
However, their biggest danger comes from their position in the Ponderada table as if Coquimbo surpass Iquique in the 2020 table, Universidad de Concepcion are relegated meaning La Serena will have to contest a relegation playoff against their fierce local rivals Coquimbo.
Curico Unido (Union La Calera away)
They beat Union La Calera 3-2 on Saturday, but await their fate tonight.
They are safe whatever happens if La Serena lose/draw against Audax or Coquimbo finish bottom of the 2020 table.
If La Serena win and Coquimbo don’t finish bottom of the 2020 table then they will contest the relegation playoff.
Deportes Iquique (Santiago Wanderers home)
Already relegated due to their performance over two seasons, but they still have a crucial role to play and these two scenarios below really help to clarify everything I have written above:
If Iquique finish bottom of the 2020 table:
Universidad de Concepción go down.
Relegation playoff will be: Coquimbo vs. Curicó or La Serena.
If Iquique don't finish bottom of the 2020 table:
Coquimbo go down.
Relegation playoff will be: Universidad de Concepción vs. Colo-Colo or Audax or La Serena.
…
In my personal opinion the most likely scenario is the one currently in place: Coquimbo go down as the bottom side in the 2020 table and Colo-Colo play Universidad de Concepción in a playoff, but as you can see, a lot could happen.
Matchday 34/34